Okay, so let’s dive into this “formula 43 betting” thing. I’m no pro gambler, but I like messing around with numbers and seeing what shakes out. So, here’s the breakdown of how I tried it out.
First off, I stumbled across this idea online. Something about using a formula to figure out how much of your bankroll to bet. Sounded kinda smart, kinda complicated. Figured I’d give it a shot.
The Setup:
- I decided I’d use a small, fixed “bankroll” – like, $100. Didn’t want to risk anything serious, just playing around.
- I needed a “formula.” This is where it got interesting. I saw a few variations floating around, but I sort of landed on a simplified version of the Kelly Criterion. Not the full-blown version, just something I could wrap my head around.
- The basic idea was: (My Estimated Probability Odds) – 1 / Odds. This gives you the % of your bankroll to bet.
Finding the “Edge”:
The big thing is figuring out your “Estimated Probability.” That’s your guess about how likely something is to happen. I decided to keep it simple and bet on coin flips or dice rolls. 50/50 shot, right? (More on that later).
The “Experiment”:
I started small. I found some online dice rolling games where I could bet small amounts.
Here’s how it played out:
- I started rolling a dice to get any number bigger than 3 (4,5,6).
- The odd was about 2, so if I use this formula, (0.5 2) -1 / 2 = 0, so I don’t need to bet at all!
- I realized this is stupid, so I started betting for the fun.
- I started with 1 dollar and lost like 10 rounds, lol.
- I almost lost all my 100 dollars.
The Aftermath:
Okay, so I didn’t get rich. Actually, I lost a few bucks. Here’s what I learned:
- Estimating Probability is HARD. Even with something “random” like dice, it’s easy to get things wrong. Also, the dice rolling game looked kind of rigged to me.
- The Formula Doesn’t Guarantee Anything. It just tells you how much to bet based on your (possibly flawed) estimate.
- Discipline is Key. It’s easy to get caught up in the moment and bet more than you should, especially when you’re on a losing streak.
My Takeaway:
This “formula 43 betting” thing is interesting. It’s not a magic bullet, but it can help you think more strategically about betting. The most important thing is being realistic about your chances and sticking to your plan. And, you know, not betting the rent money.
