Okay, so, I’ve been messing around with trying to predict total shots in NHL games. You know, for, uh, betting purposes. It’s been a wild ride, let me tell you. Started off pretty clueless, just throwing darts at a board, basically.
First, I dug into a bunch of historical NHL data. Found some websites that had game logs, player stats, you name it. Downloaded a ton of spreadsheets. My computer was not happy, lots of whirring and groaning.
Then, I started playing around in Python. I’m no expert, but I know enough to be dangerous. Wrote some scripts to clean up the data, calculate average shots per game, per player, all that jazz. It was messy, I had code and notes scribbled all over my desk, but it was progress.
Basic Averages
My initial approach was super basic. Just looked at the average shots per game for each team. Figured, hey, if Team A averages 30 shots and Team B averages 32, then maybe their game will have around 62 total shots. Right?
Tried that for a few games, and, well, it bombed. Hard. I was losing more than I was winning. Back to the drawing board.
Getting Fancy (or Trying To)
Next, I thought, maybe I need to factor in individual players. So I started tracking shots per game for each player on each team. Built a bigger, badder spreadsheet. More formulas, more calculations. My eyes were starting to cross.
I even tried to account for who was playing at home versus away, thinking that might make a difference. Home-ice advantage and all that.
- Calculate average shots for each player.
- Sum up the averages for the players in the game.
- Adjust slightly for home/away.
This was a bit better, but still not great. I was hovering around 50/50. Not exactly a recipe for riches.
What Now?
Honestly, I’m still tinkering. I’ve got some ideas about looking at recent trends, maybe weighting the last few games more heavily than older ones. I also want to explore head-to-head matchups, see if certain teams tend to have high-scoring games against specific opponents. Also my friends told me to consider the goalies’ save percentages, which totally makes sense.
It’s a work in progress. I’m learning a lot, though. About hockey, about data, about my own limitations. Maybe one day I’ll crack the code, but for now, it’s just a fun (and sometimes frustrating) hobby. I will keep you guys updated, for sure!
